Wed. Dec 18th, 2024

Threats from Somalia and Al-Shabab towards Somaliland and Ethiopia

Threats emanating from Somalia and Al-Shabab directed towards Somaliland and Ethiopia have been effectively managed by Somaliland over the past three decades. Despite the presence of past terrorist groups such as Al-Itihad Al-Islamiya, Damul Jidiid, and the currently active Al-Shabab, they have failed to establish a significant foothold in Somaliland. Notably, Somaliland has been spared the regular violence and chaos experienced in Somalia and occasionally affecting neighboring countries like Kenya and Ethiopia.

In 2009, Al-Shabab orchestrated a bombing of the UN building in Hargeisa, representing one of the few successful attacks. However, since then, there have been no comparable incidents, thanks to the diligent efforts of Somaliland’s intelligence service working in collaboration with neighboring countries, particularly Ethiopia. Multiple checkpoints positioned throughout the country play a crucial role in preventing infiltration attempts from Somalia into major cities within Somaliland.

In the past year, Somaliland has raised concerns about elements fighting in the eastern border town of Lascanood, asserting the involvement of members from Somalia’s foreign-trained military units alongside well-known Al-Shabaab fighters like Abdi Madobe. Somalia’s reaction to the recent Memorandum of Understanding between Somaliland and Ethiopia, which includes granting sea access to Ethiopia and acknowledging Somaliland’s independence, has validated these concerns. Somalia, along with its minister of religion Mukhtar Robow (a former Al-Shabab member) and minister of the interior, have both covertly and overtly threatened to use Al-Shabab as a proxy force against Somaliland and Ethiopia. Somalia’s ministry of religion issued a “Fatwa” against Somaliland and Ethiopia, calling for youth to join the fight for the “sovereignty of Somalia.” The threats from Al-Shabab align with the comments made by the government of Somalia.

The tacit co-operation between Somalia and Al-Shabab is a knee jerk reaction to an economic and political deal potentially benefiting millions of people in the Horn of Africa. Somalia’s government and the Al-Shabaab terrorists ruling much of that territory are agents of chaos and violence and should not be enabled or empowered in any way. The international donors funding Somalia’s military and government face a critical decision regarding this development. Despite substantial financial support, the Federal Government of Somalia relies on tens of thousands of African Union troops, including thousands from Ethiopia. Somalia’s alignment with Al-Shabab, evident from its recent statements and destabilization goals against Somaliland, raises questions about the effectiveness of the international aid provided to the failed state.

Somaliland’s Minister of the Interior, Mohamed Kahin, issued a statement addressing the threats from Somalia, emphasizing the possibility of repeating genocidal crimes committed in Somaliland in the late 1980s. Kahin called for unity within Somaliland and urged the population to be prepared to defend the country and their property. The seriousness of these threats should be underscored by action on the part of Somaliland’s government, it should put the military and the specialized police force, the RRU, on high alert. The intelligence service will need to intensify efforts to mitigate both internal and external threats, while the population should remain vigilant and report any suspicious activity threatening Somaliland’s peace and security.